On deciding the future of Cuba
Or how imperialism never took a day off
An interestingly honest article in Foreign Affairs about the future of Cuba, as seen from the standpoint of a former US official.
https://foreignaffairs.com/cuba/day-after-cuba
Starting off, the audacity of the emperor comes across bluntly. The author clearly explains that the US is after a change in their form of government and they (the Cubans) are not willing to concede.
“The United States has legitimate policy interests in the island—preventing its use by geopolitical rivals, managing migration, resolving U.S. property claims. The Cuban government has been willing to discuss some of these issues, such as migration, with the United States. But it has steadfastly rejected any discussions regarding its form of government, which the United States sees as the island’s fundamental problem.“
Unarguably, we have not seen the same degree of motivation to change the form of government of other undemocratic and far more repressive countries than Cuba. Several Gulf states come to one’s mind. https://freedomhouse.org/country/scores
If the purpose is to help “the intended beneficiaries of U.S. policy“ — “the Cuban citizens,” as per the author — then the US should demonstrate the same degree of motivation to liberate people from similarly repressive regimes. If the intended purpose is the promotion of US interests, the author should just name it.
The author continues to draw the conclusion that the economic strangulation imposed upon Cuban people might not have brought the desired results, so we (the US) should probably reconsider our approach.
“It should offer economic relief in exchange for pro-market reforms and political openings. It should urgently review how its sanctions regime may, paradoxically, stifle reforms it has long sought.”
Abduction or assassination could be other potential options for the Trump administration, but unfortunately it won’t be as easy as with Venezuela.
“...the Trump administration could then try to replace them (Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel and former president Raúl Castro) with leaders who are happy to jettison the country’s revolutionary system in favor of cooperation with the United States.”
Therefore, continues the author, the only realistic option is to engage in a free and constructive dialogue:
“Washington, for instance, could demand that Havana remove Chinese and Russian listening posts, which allow Beijing and Moscow to eavesdrop on U.S. military communications, among other targets. In exchange, Washington might pledge not to attack Cuba’s government.”
The Cuban diaspora should also be open-minded and consider partial relief of the embargo, otherwise resistance might harden like in the case of Nicaragua, where Ortega was re-elected when sanctions were not lifted. It is interesting to see how this is articulated: “Although the United States waged a proxy war against Ortega’s government through its support for the contra movement, Ortega ended up losing power to Violeta Chamorro, a U.S.-aligned figure, in an unexpectedly free and fair election in 1990.” It is worth mentioning that the Contras, supported by the US, purposefully mutilated and tortured civilian victims before murdering them. …thousands of Nicaraguan civilians were abducted by the Contras with their whereabouts unknown. In addition, there is no information of a single Contra fighter being arrested and serving a custodial sentence for human rights abuses, despite some being identified as perpetrators of murder and rape. https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4537&context=noticen
The actual reason is highlighted a bit later: Turning the country into a playground for US private companies, kicking off the long-awaited extractive process:
“Cuba could also offer to remove roadblocks to foreign investment and, especially, to the growth of the country’s private sector. In return, the United States might, for example, offer technical assistance to the Cuban banking system to help support subsequent reforms.”
Think for a moment how you would feel if your country were in Cuba’s position — reading a foreign power’s calm assessment of the options: attack, strangulation, or colonization. People deserve better.